In Lax We Trust's Mid Season Predictions and All League Selections

We have found ourselves at the half way point in the MLL season. The Cannons will travel to Denver to take on the Outlaws in order to determine who will hold the title of best record. In addition to reaching the middle of the season, we now know who will be playing in the MLL All Star game (Roster).

In the following text you will find a full spreadsheet of player rankings (not just the top 5 like in the weekly stat recaps),  the first annual In Lax We Trust Mid-Season All League Roster, season record predictions, and award predictions. There's a lot of information to cover, so let the fun begin!

Player Rankings

Up first in the mid season post is the player rankings. Here is the full spreadsheet that I will be referencing (spreadsheet). Click on the arrows at the top of each column to sort the results or to filter what is displayed.

One observation that I quickly noticed was how colorful the top 6 players are. In fact, the top 6 players are all from different teams. This supported the common claim that is applicable to most sports of each team being focused around one superstar. Denver has Mundorf, Long Island has Danowski, Boston has Rabil, Rochester has Crotty, Chesapeake has Hunt, and Hamilton has Walters. All of these players are very goal creating oriented which makes sense due to crowds liking goals and franchises liking to win and sell tickets. It isn't until we get down to #13 that we see a defender (Brodie Merrill).

This got me thinking. Where do the top 5 of each team at each position place on average? Here are the results with the average position of the top 5 players and the rank out of the teams in parenthesis. 

Once again Rochester makes an appearance on the list higher than you expect. Rochester is a capable team, they are just under performing. 

Like I mentioned before, people like goals. So let's take a look at mid season shooting form around the league. I will be focusing on players with at least 15 shots taken this season (if you want to raise or lower the line, just filter the shots on the google docs spreadsheet). Boston has the number one shooter in Max Quinzani, tied for 5th place with 12 goals, with an eS% of 0.586. Following Max from Boston is Matt Poskay and Ryan Boyle at 5th place and 7th place in eS%. Hamilton Fits Jordan Hall, Jeremy Boltus, and Cody Jamieson into the top 6 spots and Brett Bucktooth and David Earl closing out the top 20 while also having the second lowest team total of goals. A lot of this was due to Boltus scoring with ease last Friday against Rochester. Following the trend of having a good shooting game, like Boltus, to pad your shooting stats is Connor Martin who scored 5 times in his last game. The next Outlaw is Brendan Mundorf down at 11th place with an eS% of 0.511. Long Island's top shooter comes in the form of Time Goettelmann at 17th place with a 0.434 eS%. 

Of the 40 players around the MLL that have at least 15 shots, 8 are from Boston and Chesapeake and are 6 from Denver, Hamilton, Rochester, and Long Island. If I add up the shots, shots on goal, and goals for these 40 players and calculate a team eS% for each team we can see how the teams are shooting in terms of their most popular shooters.

Boston has scored the most total goals in the league (96) and it seems that they have found a good balance between good shots and just taking a crap load of shots and hoping one goes in.

All League Rosters

With the All Star rosters being announced the other day, I saw some players on that list that I was surprised that they made the list. One such player was Brian Phipps. Don't read my surprise as me saying "How did this guy make the all star roster? He is horrible!" I'm not saying anything close to that. How can a player be horrible if he is a professional? What I do mean with my surprise is that I was surprised that he made it onto the roster instead of Jordan Burke. I am sure that Phipps will play great and I am glad that he gets a chance to play.

For my first annual All League Rosters I will be selecting players to a first team and a second team. Each team will consist of 3 attackers, 3 middies, 3 defense, 1 goalie, 1 face off specialist, and a coach. Without further adieu, I present the In Lax We Trust Mid-season All League Rosters:

*MLL All Star

Season Record Predictions

Using just goals for and goals against in the 6 games that have been used so far we can look at projected wins. Here is how I believe the standings will look at the end of the year:

The thing to take away from this is that the season is not over for the Rattlers. While they are 0-6 and it may look like the playoffs are just out of reach, here is the light at the end of the tunnel. The teams tied for 3rd place (Chesapeake and Hamilton) are only 3-3. Hamilton's 3 wins have all come against Rochester and these two teams will not face each other any more this season. The Rattlers play the Bayhawks twice and the Lizards once during their remaining 6 games. Both of these teams are beatable and expect Rochester to be playing their best games due to them basically being in a "lose and you're out" mindset.

If everything goes according to my prediction, here is how the playoffs would look:

The Boston Cannons will emerge as the 2011 MLL Champion.

Award Predictions

MVP Award: Brendan Mundorf - Denver Outlaws
Mundorf is currently leading the league in goals and is also double digit in assists.
Also in the running: Matt Danowski - Long Island Lizards and Paul Rabil - Boston Cannons

Rookie of the Year Award: Jeremy Boltus - Hamilton Nationals
Boltus is tied for 10th in the league with 11 goals, and who can forget his performance last Friday when he scored 7 times. He has a 0.573 eS% and has also managed to stay free of penalty minutes for the first half of the season to help his team.
Also in the running: Joel White - Rochester Rattlers and Grant Catalino - Rochester Rattlers

Coach of the Year Award: Bill Daye - Boston Cannons
Daye has led the Cannons to a 5-1 record so far and they have a solid shot at getting their first championship.
Also in the running: Tom Slate - Denver Outlaws and Brendan Kelly - Chesapeake Bayhawks

Defensive Player of the Year Award: Brodie Merrill - Hamilton Nationals
Merrill has 35 ground balls won so far this season, one of the highest totals. In addition to that, he has added 4 assists. He has been solid in the back field for the Nationals who really need to keep their opponents low scoring if they want to have a chance to win.
Also in the running: Joel White - Rochester Rattlers and PT Ricci - Boston Cannons

Offensive Player of the Year Award: Brendan Mundorf - Denver Outlaws
18 goals is nothing to laugh at. He is able to score pretty easily it seems while also creating scoring opportunites for his team mates.
Also in the running: Matt Danowski - Long Island Lizards and Ned Crotty - Rochester Rattlers

Goaltender of the Year Award: Jesse Schwartzman - Denver Outlaws
Schwartzman has played all 6 games in goal, racking up over 330 total minutes. When someone plays that long they are bound to face a lot of shots. He has had 129 shots on goal, second to only Drew Adams, and has a 9.57 GAA. 
Also in the running: Jordan Burke - Boston Cannons and Drew Adams - Long Island Lizards

Sportsman of the Year Award: Tim Goettelmann - Lon Island Lizards
Now, I'll admit that this is just an attempt at a pick. Goettelmann is the two time reigning recipient of the Sportsman award, but he stands a good shot at being the first 3-time winner of the award if he continues to stay out of the penalty minutes for the rest of the season like he usually does. Also, if he donates his salary to charity again then he's my solid pick.

Most Improved Player of the Year Award: Connor Martin - Denver Outlaws
Martin scored 5 times during the game last Saturday. Last season he racked up a total of 4 points (3 goals and an assist). By beating his entire last season's point total in one game, I think Martin deserves the Most Improved Player of the Year Award.